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PHEVs produce nearly 5x more global warming emissions than lab-reported data indicate, as per a recent analysis.

Growing Discrepancy In Lab and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release only 19% lower CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel cars, according to research conducted by a non-profit organization. This differs significantly with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% decrease in pollution.

Analysts studied data from onboard fuel consumption monitors of eight hundred thousand cars sold in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than lab estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while official emissions are falling,” stated a senior analyst participating in the report. “This gap is growing and poses a significant problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit almost as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed most of the gap to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric power compared to total distance. The team found that only 27% of travel was completed in electric mode, whereas official estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in EV mode, emission amounts were significantly higher than lab projections. This occurred because electric motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function independently, leading to engines using fossil fuels for almost a third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Regulatory and Financial Implications

Based on estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions enabled several large carmaker companies to avoid over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying compliance with EU fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs would spend approximately €500 extra per year in operating costs than would be estimated under laboratory tests.

“The strong claims that automakers often promote about their PHEV cars are obviously way off the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving costs. Actually, PHEVs are little better than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of energy use, CO₂ emissions, and running costs.”

Policy Debate and Industry Pressure

Hybrid vehicles have lately been drawn again into policy debates as carmakers have lobbied the European Union to relax CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced intense lobbying from the automotive industry and opposition from member states with large car industries.

Several senior officials have proposed plug-in hybrids as a possible “compromise” solution to introduce in the regulation.

An external energy policy expert, who was unaffiliated with the research, described the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after years in which parts of the car industry argued there was too little information to properly evaluate actual emissions.

“The results demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that the difference between official and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for gasoline or diesel vehicles,” they said. “All regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost caution and considering this data.”