A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
